Bangkok, Thailand – The orange campaign buses of Thailand’s opposition People’s Party have been hard to miss in recent weeks, carrying reformist politicians through cities and villages on what they call “choose the future” tours.

At the rally site, thousands gathered to hear promises of change.

On social media, the candidates’ videos attracted millions of views.

For many, support for the party ahead of Sunday’s election has fueled hopes that the democratic future it promises may finally be within reach.

But in Thailand, winning an election does not guarantee power.

The PPP, known simply as the Orange Party for its signature colour, is the latest incarnation of a progressive movement that has repeatedly clashed with Thailand’s royalist conservatives. Its predecessor won the last election in 2023, gaining 151 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives. However, its powers were blocked by the military-appointed Senate, which was later dissolved by the Constitutional Court over its calls to limit the monarchy’s powers.

“Our ‘soldiers’ may have increased in number, but the conservative arsenal remains extremely powerful,” said Thankrit Duangmaneeporn, co-director of “Breaking the Cycle,” a documentary about the Orange Movement. But he said he hoped the party could still force compromise from the entrenched establishment by showing overwhelming support at the polls.

“We will fight at the ballot box on Sunday,” he said. “That’s all we can do.”

overturned authorization

For more than a quarter of a century, Thailand, a country of about 71 million people, has been stuck in a frustrating cycle. Reformist parties won elections only to be overturned by courts, coups, or other interventions by judges, generals, and tycoons loyal to the monarchy.

Many fear this pattern will repeat itself.

While opinion polls suggest the PPP will win the most seats again on Sunday, analysts say the conservative Bumjetai party, led by caretaker Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul, has a better chance of forming a government.

A survey conducted by the National Development Management Institute on January 30 showed that Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, the leader of the People’s Party, ranked first among the prime ministerial candidates with a support rate of 29.1%, followed by Anutin with a support rate of 22.4%. As far as the party list is concerned, the BJP leads with 34.2 per cent votes, followed by Bhumjaithai with 22.6 per cent votes. In third place is the Pheu Thai party of jailed former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra, with 16.2%.

Candidates for the top office must win the support of 251 lawmakers. Analysts say that unless the PPP can reach that threshold on its own, Poojaitai is likely to form the next government with the support of conservative power brokers, Pheu Thai and smaller parties.

The People’s Party traces its roots to the Future Forward Party, founded in 2018, promising to curb the influence of unelected institutions. It quickly became the most serious challenge to the rule of Thailand’s political and economic elite in a generation, winning 81 seats in its first election in 2019.

But it was dissolved by the court the following year.

The party reformed as Kadima and won the 2023 election, only to disband again the following year.

“We will not buy power with money”

Rukchanok Snork, 32, a member of Bangkok’s reborn People’s Party Bang Bang district, said past failures should not dampen hopes. Ruchano, nicknamed “Ice”, spoke at a rally station in the northern city of Chiang Mai and said her party had transformed Thai politics.

“We are a party that won elections without spending a single baht to buy votes,” she told Al Jazeera, referring to the long-standing vote-buying practice that affects Thai elections, especially in rural areas.

“We don’t buy power with money,” she said.

The rise of Rook Charnock himself reflects the party’s appeal.

A former online seller, she gained a following through social media criticism of corruption and military overreach, and then used that support to enter the National Assembly. She says her story shows what can be achieved in a fairer system.

“When people understand that they have a role to play and that their voices matter, they won’t lose hope in politics,” Rukchanok said.

But this idealism may not be enough.

Thammasat University legal scholar Prinya Taivanarumitkul warned that “money politics” could still influence election results in rural areas, even as voters increasingly “take their money but vote with their hearts.”

He added that for the PPP, the possibility of forming a government would only “become a reality” if it secured 200 or more seats.

Conservative counterattack

Caretaker Prime Minister Anutin is an heir to a construction fortune and a spokesman for Thailand’s legalization of marijuana. He became prime minister in August after the Constitutional Court ousted his predecessor, Paetongtarn Shinawatra, from office over his handling of Cambodia’s border crisis.

He has since cleverly exploited nationalist sentiment in the conflict, which left 149 people dead on both sides before a ceasefire in December.

“Anyone can say ‘choose me and you won’t regret it’,” Anutin told a rally near the Cambodian border this week. “But Bhumjaithai said with the army on our side we will never be defeated.”

Backed by the royalist establishment, Anutin has assembled a team of experienced figures in business and diplomacy, and has secured the support of powerful political dynasties who have traded their support for cabinet posts.

His party has also launched populist policies, including a subsidy program that covers half the cost of food, which has proven popular among struggling households and small businesses.

“I don’t know how many other policies there are,” Buapan Anusak, 56, told a recent Bhumjaithai rally in Bangkok. “But there must also be a patriotic prime minister,” she added of border tensions.

Bhumjaithai has also made inroads into territory once ruled by Pheu Thai, which won every election from 2001 until the PPP’s breakthrough in 2023.

Thaksin Shinawatra, the 76-year-old founder of the Pheu Thai party, remains a hero to many for policies such as universal health care. But Pheu Thai has lost the People’s Party’s image as a voice for reform after finishing second in the last election and joining a military-backed party to form the government. Since then, two governments have fallen one after another, and two prime ministers, including Thaksin’s daughter Bai Dongdan, have been removed from office by the courts.

Thaksin is currently in jail and a parole hearing is scheduled for May, when a new government must be formed.

“Thaksin remains the master of the ‘deal,'” said Prinya, an academic at Thammasat University. Purinya added that the politician was “very motivated to maintain a cooperative relationship” with conservatives, given Thaksin’s legal troubles and the pending case against his daughter.

economic pressure

Whoever wins on Sunday will inherit a country in economic trouble.

The tariffs have hurt exporters, economic growth has slowed to less than 2% and tourist arrivals have fallen.

“This may be the last chance to repair the Teflon economy that Thailand once was,” Pavida Pananond, an international business professor at Thammasat University, said of the country’s historical resilience. But she stressed that political stability is crucial to achieve economic recovery.

She added: “Respecting the outcome and avoiding political manipulation that undermines the democratic process is crucial to restoring confidence in the economy.”

Back on the campaign trail, Rukhchanok urged Thais not to give up.

“The moment you stop sending a signal by voting, the 1 percent who control the resources of this country make the decision for you,” she said. “People may see something ‘dirty’ when they look at politics – full of bluff, slander and endless arguments. But your life will not change until politics changes.”

She paused, then added: “We still have faith in the people.”