The company SAYS Sunday night it plans to raise up to $50 billion in debt and equity in the 2026 calendar year to fund additional data center capacity for cloud customers. Initial market reaction was favorable, with Oracle shares rising about 2% in early trading, as investors took the announcement as confirmation that demand for AI infrastructure remains strong and contracting. The market seems to feel confident that Oracle actually has a plan to address almost all of these $100 billion debt load.

As Oracle’s price hovers around $168, its social media team fills in the narrative.

“The Nvidia-OpenAI deal has no impact on our financial relationship with OpenAI,” the company said posted on X. “We remain very confident in OpenAI’s ability to raise funds and meet its commitments.”

The market reaction was swift and brutal. Instead of showing the confidence it intended, the post served as a negative signal for investors who are upset about Oracle’s debt.

“This is literally bank-run language,” venture capitalist Alex Kolicich WRITES in X.

Within minutes of the post, Oracle stock began to fall, closing down 2.79% at $160.06. By trying to prove its independence, Oracle instead reminds everyone how brilliant it is, and how far it is pulling its neck.

To be fair, the five-year credit default on Oracle swaps also fell 17%a sign that investors feel more confident in the company’s ability to manage its debt and avoid a credit downgrade. The question is why the equities fell as well.

Microsoft and Nvidia both have seen stock moves down relative to their exposure to OpenAI as investors send the message that they are bullish on AI but not necessarily the maker of ChatGPT.

Nvidia is expected to make a major equity investment in OpenAI, potentially committing up to $100 billion as part of OpenAI’s next round of funding. but weekend reporting is shown that the deal was stalled and in fact never binding, with CEO Jensen Huang adding credence to the report by emphasizing that the funding was “never a commitment,” having only reached the stage of the letter of intent. Each of Nvidia’s investments in OpenAI will be judged in stages, he said.

Huang repeated that Nvidia will be “fully involved” in OpenAI’s funding round, in what could be Nvidia’s “biggest investment ever,” but not to the tune of $100 billion. Microsoft saw a $360 billion stock wipeout last week as investors blanched at the level of AI spending. Although Microsoft beat expectations, the sale seemed to punish its disclosure that 45% of its $ 625 billion commercial backlog — almost $ 250 billion — is tied to OpenAI. Meanwhile, Microsoft’s revenue growth from its AI cloud computing has stalled, a sign that it may not have the revenue cliff needed to finance Microsoft’s own debts.

How to price private companies in public markets

Evidence is mounting that OpenAI, once considered an engine for growth, is now priced like a source of inherent risk. Within months, investors rallied on any announcement of OpenAI and a huge number: bigger data centers, bigger chip orders, bigger contracts. AmazonMicrosoft, Googleand Nvidia have all made big strides based on the simple assumption that if OpenAI needs it, the need must be worth the funding. Although detractors complain about the deal’s ‘circular funding,’ the prevailing assumption is that everyone will be paid in the end, either by the force of their own price inflation or by revenue proper.

That assumption is starting to crack. The problem is that OpenAI, a private company, is dealing with the members of the Magnificent Seven without any disclosure that markets rely on to price risk. And investors are starting to panic.

OpenAI already done to nearly $1.4 trillion in computing, power, and infrastructure spending, while generating more than $20 billion in annual revenue. The idea is that the gap can be bridged through ongoing fundraising; larger rounds, at larger valuations, from a narrower group of investors who also benefit from OpenAI’s growth. But now that model has been tested with high sensitivity.

Nvidia just adds to that mess. When Huang emphasizes that Nvidia’s massive investment in OpenAI is futile, it raises a question that goes far beyond Nvidia: If OpenAI’s financing is contingent, or delayed, what will happen to the infrastructure that has already been built to accommodate said demand?

That question is most important to companies like Oracle or Microsoft that already have the leverage to meet that exact need.

Oracle isn’t waiting to see if OpenAI raises its next round. It has borrowed, built, and committed to spending years ahead of cash flow, and if it doesn’t work out it could be caught holding the hot potato. So, when a company feels compelled to declare publicly that a counterparty can “raise funds and meet its commitments,” investors hear desperation.