All about numbers

Petro’s government also continues to crack down on criminal networks that traffic in cocaine through arrests and seizures of shipments.

In November, the Petro announced that the Colombian government had conducted its largest drug bust in a decade, with law enforcement seizing nearly 14 tons of cocaine.

Gloria Miranda was appointed by the Petro in 2024 to head Colombia’s Agency for Illicit Crop Substitution, which oversees the voluntary eradication of illicit crops.

She believes the oil company government’s efforts are being mischaracterized as ineffective.

“There is a narrative that Colombia is doing nothing to combat drug trafficking,” she told Al Jazeera.

“But we have seized 276,000 kilograms (608,500 pounds) of cocaine, destroyed 18,000 laboratories, arrested 164,000 people and are displacing more than 30,000 hectares (approximately 74,100 acres) of illicit crops.”

But critics, including Trump, believe the oil companies’ measures have yet to translate into results. Coca cultivation and cocaine production remain stubbornly at record levels.

According to the latest United Nations data, Colombia’s coca cultivation area will increase by approximately 10% in 2023. Potential cocaine production also jumped 53% to about 2,600 tons.

However, Petro questioned the accuracy of these figures. Last week, before Petro met with Trump, his administration Announce It will no longer use UN data, arguing that they rely on “obscure statistical methods”.

Michael Weintraub, director of the Center for Security and Drug Studies (CESED) at the University of the Andes, told Al Jazeera that some of Petro’s resistance was for political reasons.

But he added that there were real grounds for questioning the UN’s approach.

“The ‘potential cocaine yield’ measure has a lot of inherent assumptions that make it difficult to trust,” Weintraub said.

It predicts coca production in selected plots, but production varies by region and season. The United Nations itself acknowledges the limitations of its approach.

Despite these concerns, coca cultivation in Colombia has been on the rise for decades.

Analysts point to one overriding factor: demand. Consumption remains strong in North America and Europe, and new markets have emerged in Asia, Africa and South America.

“Coca can only grow in a limited number of places due to climate, soil and altitude,” Weintraub said. “Colombia is therefore likely to remain a major producer for the foreseeable future.”