Key contributions

• CZ was bullish on a crypto supercycle a few weeks ago, citing strong institutional adoption and pro-crypto policies.

• Recent FUD, market volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty have made him less confident of near-term crypto growth.

• CZ urges the crypto community to focus on long-term building and “buy and hold” strategies instead of reacting to market noise.

Changpeng Zhao, widely known as CZ, who recently predicted a Bitcoin ‘supercycle’ by 2026, has backtracked on that claim after mounting criticism and market turbulence.

During a weekend AMA session that addressed widespread FUD (fear, uncertainty, and doubt), CZ explained that the crypto market may not experience a supercycle anytime soon.

He pointed to the huge influence of misinformation circulating on platforms like Crypto Twitter, which has amplified market fear and contributed to sudden liquidations.

“A couple of weeks ago, I was very confident about the supercycle. But now with all this FUD, I’m not sure,” CZ said.

CZ had previously expressed strong confidence in a multi-year bull run fueled by institutional adoption, clearer regulations and favorable global policies.

However, he now sees the market environment as highly unpredictable in all assets.

Factors that explain their change include:

• Macroeconomic instability: Rising inflation and uncertain monetary policies affecting crypto valuations.

• Geopolitical tensions: Global conflicts and policy changes increase market uncertainty.

• FUD market: Amplified rumors and misinformation that led to rapid price fluctuations and major liquidations, such as the $500 million event on January 29-30, 2026.

Bitcoin it recently fell to new annual lows below $75,000.

Meanwhile, gold and silver collectively have it lost more than 10 trillion dollars in market value.

CZ stressed that Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global macro factors makes short-term predictions unreliable.

“We live in a very volatile time globally,” CZ noted, adding that volatility now extends beyond crypto to all assets, complicating forecasts.

Despite these setbacks, CZ remains cautiously optimistic. He advised the community to prioritize long-term strategies such as “buy and hold” rather than short-term trading or reacting to every FUD headline.

While the supercycle narrative faces skepticism, long-term prospects remain. CZ highlighted the factors that could still drive significant growth going forward:

• Institutional adoption: Increased integration of Bitcoin into corporate treasuries and mutual funds.

• Regulatory clarity: Policies that support crypto adoption could offset cyclical downturns.

• Technological advances: Innovation in blockchain infrastructure and derivatives markets continues.