As allies tire, is Trump’s “America First” strategy starting to backfire?


Members of President Donald Trump’s Cabinet, including Energy Secretary Chris Wright, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, Chief of Staff Suzy Wiles, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessant and Secretary of State Marco Rubio, listen to Trump speak at the World Economic Forum (WEF) at the Davos Convention Center in Davos, Switzerland, January 21, 2026.

Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images

The United States appears increasingly isolated in global geopolitics and trade relationships as allies reassess their relationships with the world’s largest economy and consider going it alone.

In the new year, many countries and power blocs are resetting relations and establishing closer commercial ties and trading partnerships to exclude a more hostile and unstable United States, including China.preliminary agreement“With Canada and Reconciliation with Britainand the EU and India and south american countries.

The deals and negotiations come a year after U.S. President Donald Trump pursued an “America First” trade and foreign policy in his second term, with the White House hitting friends and foes alike with punitive trade tariffs. even territorial threatsas it asserts its economic and geopolitical dominance.

But this strategy could backfire, especially as America’s friends and partners seek to diversify trade policy, in large part to protect themselves from Trump’s unpredictability.

“Given what is happening in the United States and its foreign policy, this is set out in a recently released report national security strategy … this ‘middle power‘You need to find your own institutions and figure out different approaches,’ Damian Ma, China director at the Carnegie Center for East Asia Studies, told CNBC on Thursday.

Carnegie China: Many countries will seek to rebalance relations with China

“Countries will align based on specific, concrete single-point interests, rather than aligning based on comprehensive values,” he said. He noted that while this was not a return to the Cold War mentality of splitting opposing power blocs, it was more of a “realignment” of national interests.

“Where this recalibration and new balance will end, no one can say, but you will see countries finally start to take action. The UK and Canada will not be the only ones,” he said, predicting that “a large number of countries will recalibrate their attitudes towards superpowers such as China and the United States”.

Diplomacy without Trump

The pace of this realignment has certainly accelerated with the implementation of a series of diplomatic and trade deals since the new year, none of which involve the United States or President Trump.

China is particularly busy, with Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Irish Prime Minister Michael Martin, Finnish Prime Minister Petri Orpo and Starmer all visiting Beijing this month.

Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney shakes hands with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing, China, Friday, January 16, 2026.

Sean Kilpatrick | Reuters

China and Canada agreed in early January to reduce trade barriers, prompting angry response From Trump while UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is in Beijing reset relationship Meeting with President Xi Jinping, both sides agreed to lower trade and travel barriers.

The EU is also very busy; make progress It has a trade deal with Mercosur and last week signed a long-awaited free trade agreement with India.

The meetings followed Trump’s tirade against allies during a speech at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland. Insulting and criticizing various leadersIncluding French President Emmanuel Macron and Carney.

President Trump: Europe is not moving in the right direction

Jimena Blanco, chief analyst at risk intelligence firm Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC that the U.S.’s communication methods with its allies have significantly deteriorated.

“Our data measuring verbal tensions between countries shows a deterioration in U.S. relations with some of its key allies over the last year,” she told CNBC on Thursday.

“The increases were most pronounced in Canada, Denmark, Belgium, Japan, Ireland, New Zealand and France, reflecting the impact of open and tense exchanges between U.S. officials and allied officials.”

But Blanco noted that U.S. allies tend to respond to Washington’s policy shifts by diversifying their economies rather than reversing their integration in the global trading system.

Blanco added: “The EU, Canada, Japan, Australia and the UK cannot afford to disengage from the US and are instead expanding trade with large emerging markets and with each other.” Emerging markets are the “main winners” from this diversification.

Loki patch

Analysts liken the difficult relationship with the United States to a period of instability rather than grounds for divorce, saying U.S. allies have little choice but to try to keep the U.S. on side while exploring other avenues for trade and cooperation.

Ivan Krastev, chairman of the Center for Liberal Strategies in Sofia, Bulgaria, said in a Goldman Sachs report earlier this week that “Europe is too dependent on the United States not only in terms of security but also in technology and economy to like today’s divorce life.”

“For Europe, while there is talk of finding new allies, aligning with other countries will not be a quick or easy process,” he noted. “Instead, Europe will focus on showing the United States that Europe matters.”

Like it or not, President Trump is "the great destroyer":Jose Manuel Barroso

Joseph Parkes, senior analyst at Verisk Maplecroft, agreed that the United States is ultimately too big to be isolated: “It’s too important from a technology, trade, currency and security perspective,” he told CNBC on Thursday.

Nonetheless, he said that in the long term, key allies aim to rebalance global relations in strategic areas.

“The nature of globalization will change. The fragmentation of trade will give rise to new and different groups of countries seeking to enhance economic resilience,” he told CNBC on Thursday. “Geopolitical flexibility” is increasingly important for companies to cope with more uncertain situations.

“Recent volatility has accelerated the shift from ‘just in time’ to ‘just in case’ to strengthen supply chains,” he noted, with companies turning to “near-shoring” and “friendly-shoring” to source materials from trusted allies.

At the same time, Parks said, governments will seek to “expand trade agreements to build strategic flexibility and reduce market and supply chain dependence on any particular country.”



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