Japan is heading toward a general election on February 8, and voters are weighing common issues such as cost of living, wages and a weak yen as they cast their ballots in lower house elections.

Beyond the economy, however, the vote will also be a test for Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi himself, with analysts saying the ultra-conservative leader has effectively turned the election into a referendum on his leadership.

“She is trying to use it as a referendum on whether people accept (her) as prime minister,” said Kazuto Suzuki, director of the Institute of Geoeconomics, a think tank in Tokyo.

The market has made little effort to downplay individual risks. On January 19, she said She “pinned my future as prime minister on this election” and asked voters to decide whether she could be entrusted with running the country.

The strategy reflects Gao Shi’s high support rateUntil recently, the proportion was above 70%. The prime minister is seeking to translate his personal popularity into votes for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, whose own support remains much weaker.

“(Takaichi) is betting on her high public approval and the divisive nature of the opposition to win,” said Mirea Solis, director of the Brookings Institution’s Asia Policy Center.

Gao Yi currently leads an untested coalition composed of the Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Reform Party. 26 years of partnership October and Komeito.

While her personal approval ratings remain strong, the Liberal Democrats themselves lag behind at just under 30%, highlighting the gap between the leader and the party.

Jesper Koll, head of experts at Tokyo-based financial services firm Monex Group, told CNBC in December that the high market was “encouraging” to older voters, especially younger Japanese voters.

Cole said her personal appeal, rather than her economic policies, could be decisive, potentially fueling a landslide victory.

“The first year of high school is a living example of a self-made woman who has overcome all odds to get to the top — from scratch, from a normal working-class family background, with neither money nor a Brahmin,” Cole said. “But hard work, dedication, passion and the will to do the right thing.”

Others warned against viewing the election as a direct endorsement of the prime minister.

Kristi Govella, an associate professor at the University of Oxford, said it might be “difficult” to view the vote as a referendum on Alcove given his relatively short tenure in office.

Govera, who is also the Japan president of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said: “If the LDP is able to secure a clear majority in this election, it will be entirely due to the personal popularity of the first year of high school – little else has changed since the LDP’s disastrous defeat at the polls in July.”

The LDP’s electoral setback came under former Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba, who called for snap elections in 2024 after defeating Takaichi in the party leadership race.

The party lost its House majority at the time. Ishiba later resigned Elections are scheduled for September 2025 after the Liberal Democrats also lost control of the upper house in July.

Latest inflation data The inflation rate was 2.1%, and the annual inflation rate reached 3.2%. real wages fall For 11 consecutive months in 2025, year-on-year, and on an annual basis, real wages have declined year by year since 2022.

Rice prices surge in mid-2025 It also dampened family sentiment and intensified the LDP’s electoral battle.

At the beginning of 2026, the Japanese yen weakened further, with the exchange rate against the US dollar once approaching the 160 level. While currency depreciation benefits exporters, it also amplifies imported inflation.

Suzuki of the Institute of Geoeconomics said that while the cost of living is a major issue, voters do not appear to directly link cost-of-living pressures to Takashi’s policies.

“(Voters) are worried about inflation, but they seem to be ignoring that… I think they’re largely comfortable with Mrs. Taka’s expansionary rhetoric,” said Ross Schaap, director of research at geopolitical risk firm GeoQuant.

Takaichi set a record $783 billion budget for the next fiscal year, which begins April 1. $135 billion economic stimulus package It was introduced last year to help families facing rising living costs.

Former coalition partner Komeito Already joined forces Form a new centrist alliance with the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the largest opposition party in the House of Representatives.

The Liberal Democratic Party and the Japan Innovation Party held a slim majority before dissolving parliament on January 23 for snap elections. Controls 230 of 465 Seats in the House of Commons. and Three independents vote together The ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s actual majority is just one seat.

Analysts say Komeito’s defeat could be costly because the party has historically played a crucial role in mobilizing voters behind the LDP.

That dynamic makes the outcome of the election highly uncertain, said GeoQuant’s Schaap.

He said the new centrist reform coalition could benefit from greater opposition coordination by combining the China Democracy Party’s more pragmatic policy proposals with Komeito’s voter mobilization machinery.

“High approval ratings (in Gao City) are important, but coordination of the opposition is also very important. The coordination of the opposition can overcome high approval ratings,” Schaap said.

“Look for high turnout. If it’s a high turnout, it could be a good day for the city. If it’s not a high turnout, it’s going to be a close race.”