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ORLANDO, Fla., Jan 27 (Reuters) – Global stocks and the S&P 500 hit new highs on Tuesday, boosted by a flood of strong U.S. earnings reports, while anxiety over the political direction of U.S. President Donald Trump sent safe-haven gold to new highs and sank the dollar to a four-year low.
More on that below. In my column today I look at why the Japanese authorities could still intervene unilaterally in the foreign exchange market to support the yen, although the chances of joint action with the US are probably quite remote.
If you have more time to read, here are a few articles I recommend to help you understand what happened in the markets today.
1. US consumer confidence falls to 11-1/2-year low 2. Global ‘middle powers’ de-risking America: MikeDolan 3. India and EU reach landmark trade deal, cuts tariffs on most goods 4. In the market: Wall Street banking on next Fed chair to face Chinese industrial profits 255 years in 20 years increases
Key market moves today
* STOCKS: S&P 500 closes at 7,000, South Korea +3% to new high, Brazil also hits new records. * SECTORS/SHOCKS: Nine S&P 500 sectors rise, led by technology, utilities. Two drops: health, energy. General Motors+9%, UnitedHealth Group -20%. * FX: Dollar Sell Snowballs. Swiss franc at 11-year high, cable at 4-year high, euro above $1.20 to fresh 4-year high, yen rising towards 152/$. * BONDS: US Treasury yields rise 4bps at the long end, steepening the curve. * COMMODITIES/METALS: Oil up ~3%, gold and silver rebound, but platinum and palladium slide 3-5%.
Today’s talking points
* Torpedoed dollar…
The US dollar is under extreme pressure, with the latest wave of selling pushing it to fresh four-year lows broadly. Baffled by geopolitics, Trump’s policies, Washington wanting a lower exchange rate or concerns about Fed independence, investors are pouring into the greenback.
Just like last year, the “Sell America” trade is playing out in currencies: US stocks are hitting record highs and Treasuries are pretty flat. Short-term technicals and momentum are not on the dollar’s side, and in the long-term, the dollar still looks expensive on a broad basis of the real effective exchange rate.
* … while the Swissie shelter rises
Given the dollar’s difficulties, and with the Japanese yen suffering from domestic political uncertainty and a falling bond market, the Swiss franc is living up to its traditional status as a safe-haven currency.
On Tuesday, the euro/Swiss fell to 0.9163 francs. This is the lowest since January 15, 2015, when the SNB abandoned its exchange rate cap, pushing the franc up to 30%. Excluding today, the Swissie has never been stronger against the Euro. It is also at an 11-year high against the dollar.
