India’s crude imports from Russia are expected to fall sharply in December to around 1.2 million bpd, the lowest in three years and a significant drop from 1.84 million bpd in November. Data from global trade analysis firm Kpler shows Russian crude will account for about 25% of India’s total crude imports for the month, down from 38% in November.

The decline comes after US sanctions against Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, effective Nov. 21, prompted Indian refiners to restrict purchases from designated entities.

Despite the sharp decline in December, analysts point out that this is a temporary disruption rather than a long-term structural change in India’s oil import strategy. “It appears to be a short-term adjustment,” said Sumit Ritolia, principal research analyst at Kpler, adding that Russian crude imports to India are expected to gradually recover from January as supply chains reconfigure and new intermediaries intervene.

The decline in December has been mainly driven by reduced intake from large buyers such as Reliance Industries Ltd. and Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd., both reduced purchases of Russian crude. To compensate, Indian refiners increased supplies from West Asia, West Africa and the Americas.

According to Ritolia, the main figures for December do not fully reflect the evolution of commercial dynamics. “Beneath the surface, Russian crude flows to India are increasingly being diverted through a growing network of intermediaries, traders and logistics solutions,” he said. “While direct purchases have softened, the underlying demand signal remains intact.”

Indian refiners are turning to undesignated Russian suppliers and opaque trade channels, with independent traders taking over roles once dominated by Rosneft and Lukoil. Ritolia has stressed that Russian crude itself is not sanctioned; they only target specific producers, vessels and service providers, allowing unsanctioned entities to continue supplying oil to India.

The price dynamics have also changed. Since early December, Urals vs. Oman/Dubai crude spreads on an ex-ship India West Coast delivery basis have remained at a discount of about $6.50 a barrel, down about $4.50 a barrel from pre-sanctions levels.

The shift in price spreads also reflects broader market trends, with competitive West Asian grades such as Arab Light and Basrah Medium seeing a reduction of $1.50 to $2 per barrel. This has led to further diversification of Indian refiners, with shipments from the UAE increasing through 2025, although annual Russian imports averaged 1.70 million bpd, down slightly from 1.78 million bpd a year earlier.

“Until broader secondary sanctions are implemented, India is expected to continue importing Russian barrels as the economy supports the case,” Ritolia said. “These barrels are likely to remain structurally embedded in India’s crude shale, albeit increasingly through indirect and less transparent channels.”