The need to build AI infrastructure is placed on PC component makers has led to the death of a consumer-facing RAM brand, but new report from the International Data Corporation (IDC) suggests that this will have a more severe impact on the PC industry at large. In its worst-case scenario model, IDC predicts that PC shipments could decline by up to 8.9 percent in 2026 due to high memory costs.

“Instead of expanding the conventional DRAM and NAND used in smartphones, PCs and other consumer electronics, major memory makers are shifting production towards memory used in AI data centers, such as high-bandwidth (HBM) and high-capacity DDR5,” wrote IDC. That continues to raise the price of RAM available for PC makers, which naturally leads them to raise the price of their own products to stay above water. For example, the modular PC maker Framework already has should raise prices of some of its laptops and parts, and said that “additional costs and price increases are very likely in the coming months.” IDC says prices could rise 6 to 8 percent by 2026 if the most pessimistic scenario comes true.

The timing of this RAM crunch is especially ironic because sales “AI PCs” – computers with neural processing units that can run AI models locally – should be one of the things that pulls the PC industry out of the post-pandemic slump. However, the larger RAM computers require leaves them more vulnerable to the effects of the AI ​​industry itself. Computers are not the only ones affected by electronics. IDC says that the average selling price of a smartphone may grow by 6 to 8 percent in its most pessimistic scenario, and smartphone shipments may decrease by 5.2 percent.

Companies like Apple and Samsung, with cash to spare and long-term supply agreements, can afford higher RAM prices and keep things steady for a year or two, according to IDC. For everyone else, however, the near term looks more expensive, and if necessary, less adventurous.