Despite two recent blockbuster Birkin auctions, overall auction prices for the iconic Hermès handbag are still falling, according to a study.

Earlier this month, a Birkin bag previously owned by Jane Birkin sold at Sotheby’s for $2.9 million, well above its high estimate of $440,000. The Black Box Birkin 40 with palladium hardware is signed by the actress, who owned the bag from 2003 to 2007. The sale follows a July auction of her original Birkin bag, which also sold at Sotheby’s for $10 million.

However, according to Bernstein, auction prices for second-hand Birkin and Kelly bags, in addition to bags once owned by Birkin, have been declining from their pandemic highs. The research firm’s Secondhand Pricing Tracker measures resale premiums (i.e. the auction price of a handbag compared to its original retail price) and weights it by volume. For example, a resale premium of 1.5 means that a bag that originally retailed for $10,000 sold for $15,000 at auction.

According to price trackers, the average resale premium for Birkins and Kellys has fallen from 2.2 times in 2022 to 1.4 times in November. The current average resale price of Birkin Togo 30 is 1.0 times the original retail price, which means that there is no premium on its original selling price, which is lower than 1.7 times in 2022 and 1.9 times in 2018.

Luxury experts say aspiring luxury shoppers are facing new pressures from inflation and a slowing job market, meaning fewer Birkin bag buyers at auction. The increased supply of second-hand Birkin bags on the market and the number of second-hand luxury goods dealers are also putting pressure on prices.

“People are waking up from the post-COVID euphoria,” said Bernstein luxury goods analyst Luca Solca. “We are redeeming ourselves from that boom and returning to normal.”

Granted, the vast majority of Birkin and Kelly bags still sell for more than their original retail price, proving that supply outstrips supply and that many customers would rather pay a premium to avoid Hermès’ opaque sales process and wait times for top-tier bags.

A report from Rebag, which sells second-hand Birkin bags and other luxury goods, said Hermès “dominated the bag category” in 2025, with eight bags selling for more than their original price.

The Birkin handbag is sold at a premium of 122%, which is 22% higher than the original retail price. While Birkin prices have plateaued over the past two years, failing to keep pace with rising retail prices, resale prices have nearly doubled since 2015, the report said.

Solca said that even as auction prices fell, Hermès still topped the list of luxury items.

“What matters is ranking in terms of consumer demand,” he said. “I think Hermès is firmly at the top of the list.”