In recent weeks, millions of Israelis have woken up at night and been forced to hide bombs because of incoming missiles – not from Gaza, Lebanon or Iran, but from Houthi militants in Yemen. .

With Hamas, Hizbollah and the Islamic republic itself all weakened and subdued after a 15-month conflict with Israel, the Houthis have styled themselves as the Palestinians’ main regional defenders and last bastion. in the so-called “axis of resistance” in Iran that is still attacking Israel.

Despite bad jokes on Israeli social media calling them the country’s new “alarm clock”, the Houthis have become a painful reminder for Israelis that the war is not over. Their ballistic missiles twice evaded air defenses, injuring 16 people in the Tel Aviv area.

“I call them ‘the last proxy,'” said Amos Yadlin, former head of Israeli military intelligence. “It took time for the Israeli system but now it is well understood . . . they should be moved to the top of the priority list.”

Israeli officials say they will do just that, launching several long-range air strikes in Yemen, the latest of which targeted ports and power stations on Friday. “The Houthis are paying, and will continue to pay, a heavy price for their aggression against us,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said.

But analysts and former officials warn that the Houthis, located 2,000km away, pose a very different and more complex challenge than enemies closer to home.

The war-hardened Islamist movement controls northern Yemen and has suffered a year-long Saudi-led bombing campaign during the country’s civil war.

Following the attack by Hamas on October 7, 2023, the Houthis began firing on merchant ships off the Yemeni coast and launching armed drones and missiles at Israel, saying they were acting in solidarity with the Palestinians. . Their attacks severely disrupted shipping through one of the world’s most important maritime trade routes and effectively closed the Israeli port of Eilat.

A naval task force led by the US and the UK has not been able to stop the fire, despite bombing Houthi weapons platforms and command centers.

“The (international) coalition did not stop the Houthis . . . and initially from October 2023 there will be no response from Israel,” said Ely Karmon, a senior researcher at the International Institute for Counterterrorism at Reichman University.

Unlike Hizbollah, Hamas, Syria or Iran, the Houthis are not a priority for Israel’s military and security services, according to a person familiar with the matter, and intelligence on them is “close to zero” on the left. until October 7. Correcting this may “Take time”, they added.

Since last summer, Israeli warplanes have hit Yemen directly on five occasions, starting with Hodeida and other sea crossings, followed by power stations further afield and now the capital Sana’a. – including the international airport.

Each such operation, some of the most far-reaching in the history of Israel’s air force, requires dozens of fighter jets and mid-air refuelers — far more complex than the short sorties required in neighboring Gaza. , Lebanon or Syria.

Although Israel’s bombing raids have been painful and costly for Yemen — especially the destruction of Hodeida, an important artery for supplies to the heavily populated north — Yemeni analysts say no they could stop the Houthis or make significant military breakthroughs.

Mohammed al-Basha, founder of the Basha Report risk analysis newsletter, said the group was able to decentralize oil imports from large fuel depots directly to trucks, while most households in Sana’ a receives electricity from private sources. Flights to Sana’a airport resumed shortly after the Israeli attack last month.

Yet the toll is likely to be borne by Yemenis – especially if food imports are restricted and fuel prices rise.

“The main impact is humanitarian . . . it doesn’t weaken the Houthis, and it doesn’t really bother them because they don’t really care what happens to civilians,” said Abdulghani Al-Iryani, a senior researcher at the Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies.

But by raising the group’s profile, attacks against Israel have helped the Houthis divert attention from issues at home.

The Palestinian cause “is the only thing they get popular support in Yemen or anywhere else”, said Iryani. “Heroic postures are very attractive and people encourage them, no matter the cost.”

Israel seems intent on testing how much pain the Yemeni people, and by extension the Houthis, can absorb. Many Israeli analysts say that the development of strikes on key state infrastructure such as ports and energy facilities is possible, while stopping the arms smuggling routes from Iran is also a priority. .

“There is no organization in the world that is responsible for the territory that cannot be controlled,” Yadlin said, adding that incoming US president Donald Trump may give Israel a freer hand in this regard.

Some in Israel argue that the goal should be to topple the Houthi regime by providing military support to opponents and factions of the group loyal to Yemen’s internationally recognized government in the south.

Israel’s direct involvement in a civil war in Yemen has a historical precedent. Israel’s Mossad security agency and its air force assisted British intelligence services and special forces in the so-called “secret war” in Yemen in the 1960s, arming the royal forces against Egyptian-backed republicans.

Israeli officials also said that Houthi leaders are now targeted for assassination, especially the group’s commander, Abdul Malik al-Houthi.

Karmon, one of the leading Houthi experts in Israel, argued that the elimination of the charismatic Abdul Malik would lead to the “disintegration of the group’s rule”.

But targeting its leaders and missile arsenals is not easy.

Analysts believe Abdul Malik is likely in Yemen’s far north, in the Houthi stronghold of Saada. But access to Saada — for regular Yemenis and foreign spy agencies — is extremely challenging for anyone but locals, Basha said.

“No matter how strong an army is, no matter how sophisticated it is, you can’t bomb the hell out of a mountain,” said Farea al-Muslimi, a research associate at the Chatham think-tank House. He added that a century’s worth of bombing attempts by local fighters had failed.

“The Ottomans tried it, the Egyptians tried it, the Saudis tried it, the Emiratis tried it. Force is no different. . . . you can’t force them.”

Cartography by Steven Bernard