Although the Canada elections only began at the end of last month, public opinion polls won an attractive political narrative that took place since the beginning of the year.

Between the trade war of President Trump, his threats to annexation and the resignation of the last Canadian Prime Minister, a lot has happened in the course of this race to form as voters feel.

The elections will take place on April 28, so there is a lot of time to change things, but the New York Times examined the public opinion surveys available, carefully examined them for quality and consistency.

Trump still has a significant impact.

When Mr. Trump started a trade war and began to threaten the sovereignty of the nation At the beginning of February, he turned the monthly dial trends: support climbed to liberals and decreased for conservatives.

In just eight weeks, the leadership of the conservative party with 20 or more points disappeared, and now the liberals of the polling station For an average of six percentage points.

Canadians have consistently quoted tensions with the United States as The most important question faced with land. And among the voters who have transferred the deliberate support from another party to the Liberal Party this year, 51 percent said that Mr. Trump’s actions are one of their first two reasons for that, According to the recent survey of the Angus Reid Institute.

The new leader brings momentum.

Liberals also benefit from a fresh face. Prime Minister Mark Carney runs the party after winning the race to replace former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who announced plans to resign in January and stepped down last month.

That same survey of Angus Reid found an even greater proportion of-56 percentage parties, saying that Mr. Carney was one of their first two reasons why they had transferred their support to the liberals.

Mr. Carney is the only leader of the National Party whose assessment is favorable – the percentage of voters who liked the minus of those who say they do not have it – is currently positive, and his popularity surpasses that of his party.

IN Angus Reid survey Since the end of March, 54 percent of Canadians had a favorable view of Mr. Carney, compared to 35 percent for the leader of the Conservative Party, Pierre Poilievre and 33 percent for Jagmeet Singha, the leader of the left -wing Democratic Party, or NDP, Mr. Carney also preferred most of Canadians, 52.

“If Trudeau had stayed, I don’t think you would have got the same numbers,” said Éric Grenier, a Canadian analyst of the polling station running Filea place for analytics of choice. “And if Trump wasn’t there, I don’t think Carney would have got the same numbers.”

Conservatives don’t do it bad; Liberals do it well.

With a multi -party parliamentary system such as Canada, any individual survey on or above 40 percent of the folk vote has a great chance of ensuring the majority government. Currently Liberals surrender, on average, about 44 percent, according to CBC -O’s survey tracker, While conservatives sit at 38 percent. In the past cycles, conservatives conquered power With a similar proportion of supportBut in these elections the voters on the left were divided.

The Liberal Party managed to combine support from the left to the detriment of other sides. While the liberals were recovering at the polls, the support of the NDP sank to some of the lowest levels in decades.

“There have always been” ABC “voters -” everything but conservative ” – but the movement is marginal,” said Philippe Fournier, who leads a place for the 338canada election analytics. “Not this time.”

Conservatives lose their support even among the basic demographs.

Recently, a remarkable demographic shift at the polls has been that the younger voters in Canada have broken conservatives.

Leger survey At the end of March, they found that Canadians at the age of 18 and 34 preferred conservatives over Liberals from 39 to 37 percent, while Some survey They showed young voters to favor conservatives for as many as 10 percent points.

In the past two years, Mr. Poilievre has made a gain in this group, especially among young men, partly because he has offered a change from status quo, which many young Canadians consider that they do not work for them.

In fact, while Canadians over the age of 50 have cited continuous trade war as the best question facing the country, Those under the age of 50 were equally likely To point out other questions, such as the cost of living, as their main care. Similarly, just like in the United States, there is native gap, and men are much more likely than women to support conservatives.

But these gaps are reduced in almost every group, according to Angus Reid.

Support among men is now almost evenly divided, in the last survey, and 44 percent of men said they plan to vote for conservative compared to 42 percent say they plan to vote for liberal.

Only one group of age sexes-mushkans aged 35 to 54-the last survey had a multitude that obviously preferred a conservative party, but that gap also narrowed.